It's not surprising that some folks in Yuba County have grown skeptical about developers making big promises.
Two years have passed since Southern California developer Frank Arciero vanished from the local scene, leaving in limbo his much ballyhooed plans for a $100 million auto raceway.
The economically depressed county's one big addition of recent years -- the $20 million AutoWest Amphitheatre -- hardly has turned out to be a financial savior. While it has hosted such big-name acts as Bob Dylan, Sting and Britney Spears, it generates less revenue for county coffers than a typical grocery store because of the terms of the development deal.
In the end, despite all the big talk, Yuba County sat out the economic boom of the 1990s, just like it sat out the boom of the 1980s. As neighboring Placer County's population boomed by 44 percent, Yuba's eked out a gain of just 1.3 percent between 1990 and 2000.
"I've been here 15 years and I've seen one subdivision get built," said community development director Jim Manning.
But business finally may be picking up:
A new Wal-Mart recently broke ground, big news in a county that has been starved for shopping venues since the Peach Tree Mall flooded in 1986, causing many stores to leave.
The industrial park surrounding Yuba County's airport has started to generate interest among corporate tenants, some of whom plan to move from more expensive Placer County.
"We've seen probably eight bids coming in these last two months," said county Supervisor Mary Jane Griego. "There's probably 500 to 600 jobs with those businesses that are coming in."
On the residential front, grading has begun on the long-planned Plumas Lake development south of Olivehurst, which is slated for up to 11,000 homes in a mix of price ranges.
And there are big plans cooking -- albeit mysterious ones -- for the erstwhile racetrack site.
The new Wal-Mart is under construction in the unincorporated town of Linda. While the arrival of a "big box" discount store might not be news in more urbanized parts of the Sacramento area, it's a big deal in Yuba County, where the retail tax base is nil and unemployment stands at about 12 percent.
"It's really a benchmark for Yuba County because it will bring about 300 jobs," said county Supervisor Dan Logue, a real estate broker who handled the Wal-Mart deal before taking office.
Since Montgomery Ward closed a couple of years back, the Marysville Mervyn's is the only department store in the 56-mile-long county.
Wal-Mart will be "the first retail store to come to Yuba County for 17 years," Logue said.
Officials figure the discount giant will generate about $300,000 for the county annually in sales taxes. They hope it will attract more retailers, too.
"It really is a chain effect that when a major retailer comes in, others will come in just by default," said John Fleming, the county's economic development coordinator.
One of the reasons Wal-Mart was interested, he said, is the prospect of thousands of new shoppers moving in nearby at Plumas Lake. The development, situated near the juncture of Highways 70 and 65, is in a good position to draw commuters from both the Sacramento and Roseville job markets, Manning said.
Until now, Yuba County largely has missed out on the Sacramento region's explosive residential growth. Plenty of commuters have headed north along the Highway 65 corridor in search of less expensive housing, but they've mostly gone across the river to Yuba City, which despite its name is in Sutter County.
Marysville, the largest incorporated city in Yuba County, is hemmed in by levees and has little room to grow.
Plans for Plumas Lake were approved in 1992, but the recession of the early 1990s killed builder interest. "By the time it was adopted, the Sacramento market had receded from coming up here," Manning said.
Then came the floods. "Every square inch" of the Plumas Lake property was underwater when the Feather River levee broke in 1997, Manning said, leading some Sacramento environmentalists to question whether building thousands of homes on the site is a good idea.
County officials say a $42 million levee restoration project nearing completion has made the area sufficiently safe for building.
But representatives of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers stressed that the restoration project didn't actually provide a higher level of flood protection than Yuba County enjoyed in the past. "We merely brought the levees back to where they had been (before the floods)," said corps spokesman Dave Killam. "We didn't improve them."
Four years ago, Congress authorized another levee project to increase the level of flood protection for Yuba County. But it has yet to appropriate the $30 million needed to do the work.
If Plumas Lake materializes as planned, it would bring thousands of new homes to an area just west of the dormant sports-entertainment zone around the amphitheater, the spot where the racetrack was supposed to go.
Fleming, the county's economic development coordinator, said he hasn't seen or heard from former racetrack frontman Arciero for more than two years. But Arciero's partner, Illinois energy company executive and racing industry leader Gerald Forsythe, apparently remains very much interested in building some kind of major entertainment destination in Yuba County.
County Supervisor Don Schrader, whose district includes the racetrack site, said he meets with Forsythe's representatives "on a monthly basis."
"I think Frank (Arciero) is completely out of it," Schrader said. "I've tried to contact him at his office with very little success."
Arciero, now in his late 70s, could not be reached for comment at his vineyard or his winery in Paso Robles. One of his staff members said he "doesn't really take calls."
Representatives for Forsythe, meanwhile, declined comment.
The idea of building an Indianapolis 500-style racetrack was Arciero's dream. He tried to build one in Palm Springs in the early 1990s but abandoned the plan when political support evaporated.
Arciero had better luck in development-starved Yuba County. Local politicians welcomed him, and when it became clear the project could get tied up in the courts over environmental concerns, he paid for a special election.
In the 1998 election, Yuba County residents voted 86 percent to 14 percent in favor of rezoning 1,000 acres of farmland for the track, the amphitheater, a golf course and other recreational uses.
Armed with that approval, Arciero was able to attract Forsythe, who also is heavily involved in racing. He became a 50-50 partner.
Then financial reality intervened. The cost of a proposed Highway 70 interchange ballooned from $4 million to $22 million when county planners realized they would have to build a bridge over Union Pacific railroad tracks.
"That's kind of where things got stalled," Fleming said.
The county eventually secured $13 million of the money needed for the interchange, and now is building the western portion to serve the Plumas Lake subdivision. The eastern portion, including the expensive railroad bridge, remains on hold.
In the meantime, Arciero receded from the picture and Forsythe took the lead. In the past year, he has bought an additional 400 acres around the amphitheater, bringing his total holdings to about 1,400 acres.
He has earmarked 40 acres of the land for a casino and hotel proposed by the Estom Yumeka Maidu tribe, also known as Enterprise Rancheria. Forsythe Racing Inc. would be the casino's principal investor.
The casino proposal has divided public opinion in the county. In December, the Board of Supervisors voted 3-2 to support it in exchange for an agreement from the tribe to pay the county $72.8 million over 16 years. The tribe still needs approval from the state and federal governments.
Forsythe clearly has plans much bigger than the casino and adjoining hotel, which would occupy a small percentage of his land. He has not, however, told the county what those plans are.
"I can only make guesses from the questions they ask," Fleming said. "They really are fairly secretive, and it's sort of understandable, especially when you tout a motorplex ... and it doesn't get built."
In the absence of concrete information, rumors abound. "I heard one time they might put in a Waterworld or something, but that's just gossip," said Flying U Rodeo owner Cotton Rosser, who recently sold 77 acres to a Forsythe-controlled company for $3 million.
Forsythe's representatives refused to comment publicly about what they are doing. Even his public relations person declined to comment on the record. But a source close to the operation, who asked not to be named, said all entertainment options are open, including a road-style race course that would be smaller than the motorplex, a theme park or a golf course.
Forsythe has hired a consulting firm, Strategic Leisure, to come up with a plan.
"They're very excited about a variety of developments that are sports and entertainment related -- anything from theme parks to golf courses, and certainly an auto racing component," the source said.
He said Arciero would not be involved in future enterprises on the site.
Fleming said Forsythe's consultants said they would reveal their new plans by the end of January. They still haven't done so, but Fleming said they're talking about doing something big in the entertainment business.
"I don't believe anything until the ribbon is cut, but the consultants are calling it a billion-dollar idea," Fleming said.
For now, the amphitheater sits among green fields, alone and quiet for the winter.
Rosser still raises his horses on the 75 acres he sold to Forsythe.
And Yuba County waits for something big to happen.